ارزیابی اثرات خشکسالی بر پویایی مراتع استان اردبیل با بهره‌گیری از شاخص‌های SPI و NDVI

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد، گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران.

2 دانش‌آموخته دکتری، گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران.

3 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، گروه آموزشی برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران.

10.29252/aridbiom.2026.4246

چکیده

خشکسالی به‌عنوان یک مخاطره فراگیر اقلیمی، تأثیرات عمیقی بر پایداری و پویایی اکوسیستم‌های مرتعی دارد. هدف از پژوهش حاضر، پایش و تحلیل اثرات خشکسالی هواشناسی بر پویایی پوشش‌گیاهی مراتع استان اردبیل در طول فصل رشد است. بدین منظور، ابتدا روند بارش ایستگاه‌های منتخب هواشناسی با استفاده از آزمون من-کندال ارزیابی و شاخص بارش استاندارد (SPI) در یک دوره 24 ساله (1375 تا 1399) در مقیاس‌های زمانی ۱، ۳، ۶ و ۹ ماهه محاسبه گردید. سپس، وضعیت پویایی پوشش‌گیاهی با بهره‌گیری از تصاویرلندست و شاخص تفاضل نرمال پوشش‌گیاهی (NDVI) استخراج و درنهایت، با استفاده از آزمون همبستگی پیرسون، روابط میان شاخص‌های خشکسالی و وضعیت پوشش‌گیاهی مرتعی تحلیل شد. نتایج نشان داد که سال‌های ۱۳۹۲، ۱۳۸۵، ۱۳۹۶ و ۱۳۸۷، پرتکرارترین سال‌های وقوع خشکسالی در منطقه بوده‌اند. ازنظر مکانی، ایستگاه مشکین‌شهر بیشترین و ایستگاه پارس‌آباد کمترین تعداد دفعات خشکسالی را تجربه کرده‌اند. همچنین، تحلیل شدت خشکسالی نشان داد ایستگاه خلخال با خشکسالی‌های شدید و خیلی شدید و ایستگاه پارس‌آباد با خشکسالی‌های ملایم مواجه بوده‌اند. بررسی شاخص NDVI نشان داد که در بازه زمانی آبان تا اردیبهشت، فصل رشد مناطق قشلاقی و فروردین تا شهریور، فصل رشد مناطق ییلاقی استان است؛ به‌طوری‌که اردیبهشت (با حداکثر مقدار) و مردادماه (با حداقل مقدار) پیک‌های شاخص NDVI را نشان می‌دهند. بررسی همبستگی میان شاخص‌های خشکسالی و پوشش‌گیاهی نشان داد که مقدار بارش با NDVI همبستگی مثبت و معناداری 0.77 (با سطح اطمینان 01/0) دارد. در مقابل، SPI یک‌ماهه با همبستگی متوسط حدود 26 درصد را با NDVI نشان می‌دهد که فاقد سطح اطمینان است. به‌طورکلی، تغییرات پوشش‌گیاهی مراتع استان اردبیل از الگوی بارش تأثیر می‌پذیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


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