Changes in the landscape based on the Markov model and the stakeholder’s point of view (Case study: Dehbala Watershed)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Master of Watershed Management, Yazd University, Iran

2 Department of Rangeland and Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Desert Studies, Yazd University, Iran

3 Postdoctoral researcher of Integrated Watershed Management, Department of Soil Science, College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran

10.29252/aridbiom.2024.20695.1961

Abstract

In order to provide conditions of the land stability is important to be aware of the landscape changes in the current and future conditions. The most important subject in the investigation of landscape changes is the preparation of land use maps. Today, land surface measurements and remote sensing technology are used to investigate land use changes. The current study was conducted with the purpose of investigating the landscape changes of the Dehbala Watershed in the future and the reasons for these changes from the stakeholder’s point of view. For this purpose, using Landsat satellite images and the supervised classification method, a land use map was prepared for the years 2012 and 2022 in four classes. Also, with the Markov chain model, land use changes were predicted for 2032. In order to quantify the landscape, the edge density measures and the indicator of the largest pitch were considered biodiversity indicators. The results showed that in the period from 2012 to 2022, the most changes are related to the land use of barren land and the area of this land use has increased 18.24%. Also, the area of rangeland with low density has decreased by 17.9%. The results of the changes forecast showed that in 2032, 11.41% will be added to the land use of barren land and 0.08% to garden, and from the area of rangeland with low density and e garden homland will be 11.16 and 0.31, respectively. Also, the examination of the changes in two indicators of biodiversity showed that the edge density indicator and the largest pitch in the studied time period have an increasing and decreasing trend, respectively, that indicates land degradation. Also, from the stakeholder’s point of view, the most important factor in the landscape changes in the watershed is the government's wrong policies and villa construction by non-native people, which show the more attention of officials to improve the conditions of this watershed.

Keywords

References

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Journal of Arid Biome
Volume 14, Issue 1
March 2024
Pages 141-157

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