Application of copula function in multivariate analysis of stream flow drought index (case study: Minab Esteghlal Dam Basin)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D. Student, Department of Natural Resources Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural and Natural Resources Engineering, University of Hormozgan, Bandarabbas, Iran

2 Associate professor, Department of Natural Resources Engineering and Statistics, Faculty of Agricultural and Natural Resources Engineering, University of Hormozgan, Bandarabbas, Iran

3 Associate professor, Department of Natural Resources Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural and Natural Resources Engineering, University of Hormozgan, Bandarabbas, Iran

4 Assistant Professor, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science, University of Hormozgan, Bandarabbas, Iran

10.29252/aridbiom.2023.20698.1962

Abstract

In analyzing the frequency of drought as a multifaceted phenomenon, summarizing the event in one variable reduces the reliability of the results. Bivariate and multivariate drought frequency analysis using copula functions makes it possible to estimate the return period of a drought event with specific intensity, duration and peak. In the present study, the stream drought index (SRI-12) was used to investigate the characteristics of drought using the monthly stream of Barnetin Station of the Esteghlal Minab Dam watershed. Spearman's correlation coefficient was used to analyze the dependence between hydrological drought variables and six marginal distribution functions for their modeling. Then, by using Archimedean and elliptical family copula, the best joint was selected and conditional multivariate analysis of hydrological drought was done. The results showed that gamma, lognormal, and Weibull distributions are the best marginal distribution functions for drought intensity, duration, and peak, respectively. The results of the copula fit show that the best copula function in analyzing the dependence between variables is Frank's copula. The three-variable conditional probability of drought severity in 20, 50, 80, and 100-year continuities and peaks of 1 and 1.5 were investigated. These thresholds were chosen considering that they were the most frequent in the study area. The results showed that the probability of drought intensity decreases with the drought duration remaining constant and the peak increase from 1 to 1.5, but with the drought duration and intensity increasing, the drought peak also increases.

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References

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Journal of Arid Biome
Volume 13, Issue 1
April 2023
Pages 97-110

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