ارزیابی تأثیر تغییر ‌اقلیم بر تغییر‌پذیری بارش و دما (مطالعه موردی: ایستگاه‌های کاشان و خوروبیابانک)

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه کاشان

2 دانشیار، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه کاشان

10.29252/aridbiom.2019.1545

چکیده

مدل‌های گردش عمومی، توسط آژانس‌های اقلیمی به‌منظور پیش‌بینی تغییرات اقلیمی آینده، به‌کار گرفته می‌شوند. خروجی ‌مدل‌های گردش عمومی به‌عنوان رابط محلی، قدرت تفکیک فضائی بزرگتری از متغیرهای شبیه‌سازی شده دارند. در پژوهش حاضر، مدل ریزمقیاس نمائی آماری SDSM، به منظور تخمین تغییرپذیری بارش و دما در ایستگاه‌های سینوپتیک کاشان و خور و بیابانک در استان اصفهان براساس سناریوی تغییراقلیم ریزمقیاس شده از مدل HadCM3، مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. برای این منظور ابتدا تغییرات میانگین دما و بارش دوره پایه تحت سناریوی A2 مدل HadCM3، با استفاده از داده‌های بلند‌مدت روزانه ایستگاه‌های مذکور، بررسی گردید، سپس تخمین و پیش‌بینی دوره‌های آتی (2039-2010)، (2069-2040) و (2099-2070) صورت گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که در هر دو ایستگاه، مقادیر دما و بارش شبیه‌سازی شده تطابق و سازگاری نزدیکی با مقادیر مشاهداتی داشتند، ولی عملکرد فرآیند ریزمقیاس نمایی در پیش‌بینی بارش در دوره‌های واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی، نسبت به پیش‌بینی دما پایین‌تر بود. نتایج نشان داد دمای میانگین در ایستگاه کاشان،  42/0،  08/1 و 16/2 درجه سانتی‌گراد در دوره‌های (2039-2010)، (2069-2040) و (2099-2070) میلادی نسبت به  دوره پایه (2001-1987)، افزایش می­یابد. همچنین نتایج، کاهش دمای میانگین را در ماه‌های ژانویه، فوریه، مارس، سپتامبر و دسامبر و افزایش در سایر ماه‌ها را نشان داد. نتایج در ایستگاه خور و بیابانک نیز نشان داد که درجه حرارت به‌طور مداوم در منطقه، افزایش خواهد یافت. همچنین متوسط بارش سالانه، تحت سناریو A2 ، 38/1 میلی‌متر در طول دوره پیش‌بینی (2099-2070) در مقایسه با دوره مشاهداتی افزایش می‌یابد.

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