Prediction of the Aquifer Status in the Isin-Bandar Abbas Plain Using a System Dynamics Model

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D. student in Desert Management and Control, Department of Natural Resources Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Hormozgan, Iran

2 Associate Professor in the Department of Natural Resources Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Hormozgan, Iran.

3 Professor in the Department of Reclamation of Dry and Mountainous Areas, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran

10.29252/aridbiom.2026.3996

Abstract

This study aims to develop a system dynamics model to simulate the groundwater conditions of the Isin plain aquifer and to assess groundwater supply and demand in the agricultural and domestic sectors under a business-as-usual scenario, projected through the horizon year 2031. The proposed model was developed by considering three subsystems: groundwater resources, water demand, and population. It simulates and forecasts the volume of the groundwater reservoir, the demand and deficits in agricultural and domestic water consumption, as well as the population. The dynamic model of the proposed system was developed using Vensim software and was calibrated and verified for the period of 2010-2020 for the Isin Plain-Bandar Abbas aquifer. The relevant variables were then simulated up to the horizon of 2031. The results showed that the model has a high level of accuracy in simulating the status of the groundwater resources system. Considering that agricultural water demand is decreasing at a negative growth rate, it is expected to decline to 6.7 MCM by 2031. As a result, the agricultural water deficit has also decreased. The population of Isin Plain will have increased by 7,722 people by 2031, and the domestic water demand will rise from 4 MCM to 12.1 MCM. The Isin Plain has experienced a drinking-water deficit of 3.9 MCM since 2022, and this deficit is projected to reach 10.7 MCM by 2031. Considering that the agricultural sector, as the main consumer of groundwater, has shown a downward trend, the volume of the Isin groundwater resource increased from 128 MCM in 2020 to 226.5 MCM in 2031. The supply and demand of groundwater in this plain should be based on sustainable development, as the future of agriculture in the Isin plain is facing a serious crisis with significant economic and social consequences for the users. In addition, the transfer of treated wastewater from the city of Bandar Abbas, the expansion of artificial recharge facilities, and the dredging of previously constructed infrastructure will contribute to improving the condition of the aquifer.

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Main Subjects

References

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Journal of Arid Biome
Volume 15, Issue 1
March 2025
Pages 103-119

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