Measuring the relationship between weather elements and household gas consumption in Fars province, under the influence of climate change

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Associate Professor, Natural Geography Department, Faculty of Geographical Sciences and Planning, Isfahan University, Isfahan, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Department of Natural Geography, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Urban and Rural Geography, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran

4 Postdoctoral researcher, Department of Natural Geography, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran

10.29252/aridbiom.2023.20690.1960

Abstract

The ever-increasing increase in energy demand against the reduction of comprehensive energy resources along with the consequences of global warming makes it necessary to quantitatively examine the changes in the cooling and heating needs of the country in the past and future decades. In the present research, first, the temperature data related to the period (1387-1386 S.H.) was extracted from the errimoi.ir data site, and the correlation between these two factors was obtained by obtaining the gas consumption data from the regional gas department of Fars province. In the following, by using the future temperature data from ECMWRF and the regression equations obtained from the correlations obtained between the temperature and gas consumption during the previous years (1391-1396 S.H.) in the previous stages, the amount of gas consumption for the periods 2010-2030, 2030-2060 and 2100-2091, was calculated and compared with the gas consumed in the past. According to the obtained results, the average gas consumption was higher in the observation period and during the future period under both scenarios A and B, where we see an increase in temperature, gas consumption has also decreased. In the following, the CPI index was calculated for the last period as well as the three mentioned periods under both scenarios B and A. The average Baker index in the three studied periods, in scenario A, 19.97, 21.08, and 23.34, respectively, and under scenario B, 19.61, 20.62, and 21.33 units decreased compared to the monitoring period, which shows It is a tendency towards unfavorable bio-climatic conditions in Fars province. Finally, by using the digital elevation model (DEM) of Fars province and the regression equation of gas consumption in the past, the relationship between altitude and gas consumption in different seasons was obtained. According to the results, there is a direct relationship between temperature and altitude in all seasons, and the highest amount of gas consumption has been recorded in the highlands of the province and places that have a lower average temperature throughout the year.

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Main Subjects

References

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Journal of Arid Biome
Volume 13, Issue 1
April 2023
Pages 151-162

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