Projection of the trend of changes in dust storms in southeastern Iran under SSP scenarios in the period (2000-2010)

Document Type : Short Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D. candidate, Combat to Desertification Department, Faculty of Desert Studies, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Combat to Desertification Department, Faculty of Desert Studies, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran

10.29252/aridbiom.2023.19169.1906

Abstract

The impact of dust storms on the Sistan and Baluchistan region is one of the most important current issues in this region. The current research is an attempt to investigate the effects of climate change on the trend of changes in dust storms in Sistan and Baluchistan province in the future perspective (until the end of 2100) compared to the base climate period (2010-2020). The study method consists of two parts, namely, analyzing the trend of dust storm events changes from the past to the present and projection the future situation. In the first step, using the multiple linear regression method, the correlation and relationship between the variable of days with dust with other climatic parameters (temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and wind speed (during the statistical period of 2010-2020 was obtained. Then, the modeled data of the CMIP6 global model in three scenarios and 8 decades from 2020 to 2100 were used as inputs of significant regression relationships during the period 2010 to 2100 to investigate the future status of dust storms. Analysis of the results showed that, the trend of dust event change based on three scenarios of optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic in Sistan and Baluchestan provinces is increasing. As expected, the least dusty days are seen based on the optimistic scenario (SSP1-2.6). The dust trends based on the middle (SSP3-7.0) and pessimistic (SSP5-8.5) scenarios have almost the same trend and are increasing. Therefore, we can expect to have more frequent dust events in the future as climate change continues. As a result, the necessary investments for adaptation measures and mitigation against the harmful effects of dust need to be put on the agenda from now on.

Keywords

References

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Journal of Arid Biome
Volume 11, Issue 2
November 2022
Pages 87-96

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