Extraction of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves and precipitation change process under the impact of climate change (Case study: Mehrabad synoptic station, Tehran)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D. student in Watershed Science and Engineering, Kashan University, Kashan, Iran

2 Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, Kashan University, Kashan, Iran

3 Associate Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, Kashan University, Kashan, Iran

10.29252/aridbiom.2022.18543.1892

Abstract

In this research, the changes in the frequency intensity curve for the Zone No. 6 of Tehran municipality (Mehrabad synoptic station) under the influence of climate change were investigated by using the Abkhezr-Ghahreman relationship. The information related to the current research includes two categories: First category includes hourly rainfall data measured in order to derive IDF curves for the base period (1980-2020). The second category includes the predicted daily rainfall data for the near future (2021-2050) and the far future (2051-2100), which were obtained from the output of the LARS model. First, using EasyFit software, statistical analysis was done on the observational data and the best distribution (Gamble distribution) was selected and the corresponding IDF curves were extracted for different return periods. To extract the IDF curves under the influence of climate change, the general circulation model of the atmosphere HadGEM - ES from the series of CMIP5 models under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios was used. The results showed that the rainfall intensity in all rainfall interval duration and different return periods in all three scenarios have increased compared to the intensity duration frequency curve of the base period, and only for the near future (2021-2050) under the RCP 8.5 scenario, there is a decreasing trend compared to the base period will have. For example, interval duration of 4 and 24 hours for the return period of 10 years, the amount of precipitation intensity for the scenario RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 for the distant future (2051 -2100) is 7.05, 7.1 and 2.56, 2.58, respectively, while which for the base period (1980-2020) is 6.71 and 2.44, respectively, which indicates the increase in the intensity of maximum rainfall with the increase of the return period. It can be concluded that the maximum intensity of rainfall has increased in short-term time base and with the passage of time, the intensity of the maximum rainfall has decreased, and the IDF curves are affected by short-term rainfall.

Keywords

References

[1]. Bakhtiari, B. Purmusavi, Sh. Sayari, N. (2014(. Impact of Climate Change on Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves of Precipitation (Case study: Babolsar station. Iranian Journal of Irrigation and Drainage, 8(4), 694 – 704. (In Farsi)
[2]. Bolouki, H., Fazeli, M., Sharifzadeh, M. (2021). Investigation of the effect of climate change under emission scenarios on intensity-duration-frequency curves of precipitation in Zahedan Synoptic Station using Fractal theory, Iranian journal of Ecohydrology, 8(3), 735-748. (in Persian)
[3]. Cheng K-S, Hueter I, Hsu E-C, Yeh H-C.)2001(. A scaleinvariant Gauss-Markov model for design storm hydrographs. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 37(3), 723-735.
[4]. Ghahraman, B. Abkhezr, H. )2004(. Improvement in Intensity-Duration-Frequency Relationships of Rainfall in Iran. JWSS, 8(2), 1-14. (In Persian)
[5]. Habibnejad, R., Shokoohi, A. )2021(.Investigating the Use of Weather Generator Models Simulation Instead of the Output of Climate Change Models in Predicting Design Precipitation (Case study: Tehran, Mehrabad Station), Iran-Water Resources Research, 17(3), 231-247. (in Farsi)
[6]. Kuok, King Kuok, Yau Seng Mah, Monzur A. Imteaz, and Sze Miang Kueh. (2016). Comparison of future intensity duration frequency curve by considering the impact of climate change: case study for Kuching city. International Journal of River Basin Management, 1(14), 47-55.
[7]. Menabde M, Seed A, Pegram G. A).1999. (simple scaling model for extreme rainfall. Water Resources Researc, 3(1), 335-339.
[8]. Mohamadi, M., Mamizadeh, J., Ehsanzadeh, E.)2020. (Comparison of Statistical and Empirical Models in Determining the Intensity-Duration-Frequency Rainfall Curves (Case Study: Ilam City), Irrigation and Water Engineering, 11(1), 256-268. (In Persian)
[9]. Mirhosseini, G., Srivastava, P., & Stefanova, L. (2013). The impact of climate change on rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves in Alabama. Regional Environmental Change, 13(1), 25-33. ‏
[10]. Nhat, L. M., Tachikawa, Y. and Takaka, K. )2006(. Establishment of IDF relationships for monsoon areas, Annual of Disas. Prev. Rrev. Inst., Kyoto University, 49B, 93-103.
[11]. Vu, M. T., Raghavan, S. V., Liu, J., & Liong, S. Y. (2018). Constructing short‐duration IDF curves using coupled dynamical–statistical approach to assess climate change impacts. international Journal of Climatology, 38(6), 2662-2671. ‏
[12]. Racsko, P., L. Szeidl and M. Semenov. )1991(. A serial approach to local stochastic weather models. Ecological Modeling, 57(1), 27-41.
[13]. Safavi, H., Dadjou, S., Naeimi, G. )2019(. 'Extraction of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) Curves under Climate Change, Case study: Isfahan Synoptic Station, Iran-Water Resources Research, 15(2), 217-227. (In Persian)
[14]. Semonov M.A., Stratonovitch P. )2010(. Use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for assessment of climate change impacts, CLIMATE RESEARCH. 41, 1-14.
[15]. Semenov, M., R. Brooks, E. Barrow and C. Richardson. )1998(. Comparison of the WGEN and LARS-WG stochastic weather generators for diverse climates. Clim. Res, 10, 95-107.
[16]. Sharma, R., Choudhury, N., Alam, R., Seleyi, V., & Sangtam, Y. (2016). Development of Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves for precipitation in western watershed of Guwahati (Assam). International Journal of Latest Trends in Engineering and Technology, 6(4), 575-579. ‏
[17]. Shrestha, A., Babel, M. S., Weesakul, S., & Vojinovic, Z. )2017(. Developing Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves under climate change uncertainty: The case of Bangkok, Thailand. Water, 9(2), 145.
[18]. Tfwala C.M. Van Rensburg L.D. Schall R. Mosia S.M. Dlamini P. )2017(. Precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves and Their Uncertainties for Ghaap Plateau. Climate Risk Management, 16(1), 1-9.
[19]. Yimer, G., Jonoski, A., & Griensven, A. V. (2009). Hydrological response of a catchment to climate change in the upper Beles river basin, upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia. Nile Basin Water Engineering Scientific Magazine, 2(1), 49-59.
Journal of Arid Biome
Volume 11, Issue 1
September 2021
Pages 143-155

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics